EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2014
BEA 14-52


* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.


Lisa S. Mataloni: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov
Jeannine Aversa: (202) 606-2649 (News Media)  
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)
      Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United
States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of
2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second
quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.

      The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and
"Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5).  The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on
more complete data, will be released on November 25, 2014.

      The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government
spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution
from private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
decreased.

      The deceleration in the percent change in real GDP reflected a downturn in private inventory
investment and decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, in state and local
government spending, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downturn in
imports and an upturn in federal government spending.

      The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the second.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.7 percent.


_________
FOOTNOTE.  Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified.  Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates.  Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.  "Real" estimates are in chained (2009)
dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related
to this release.
_________


      Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared
with an increase of 2.5 percent in the second.  Durable goods increased 7.2 percent, compared with an
increase of 14.1 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2
percent.  Services increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent.

      Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an
increase of 9.7 percent in the second.  Investment in nonresidential structures increased 3.8 percent,
compared with an increase of 12.6 percent.  Investment in equipment increased 7.2 percent, compared
with an increase of 11.2 percent.  Investment in intellectual property products increased 4.2 percent,
compared with an increase of 5.5 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 1.8 percent,
compared with an increase of 8.8 percent.

      Real exports of goods and services increased 7.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an
increase of 11.1 percent in the second.  Real imports of goods and services decreased 1.7 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 11.3 percent.

      Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 10.0 percent
in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the second.  National defense increased
16.0 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent.  Nondefense increased 0.5 percent, in contrast to
a decrease of 3.8 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent.

      The change in real private inventories subtracted 0.57 percentage point from the third-quarter
change in real GDP after adding 1.42 percentage points to the second-quarter change.  Private
businesses increased inventories $62.8 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $84.8 billion in
the second quarter and $35.2 billion in the first.

      Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 4.2
percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the second.


Gross domestic purchases

      Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.8 percent in the
second.


Disposition of personal income

      Current-dollar personal income increased $152.9 billion in the third quarter, compared with an
increase of $223.0 billion in the second. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected a
deceleration in wages and salaries, a downturn in farm proprietorsí income, a deceleration in personal
dividend income, and a downturn in personal interest income.

      Personal current taxes increased $26.4 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of
$11.2 billion in the second.

      Disposable personal income increased $126.4 billion, or 4.0 percent, in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of $211.8 billion, or 6.8 percent, in the second.  Real disposable personal
income increased 2.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the
second.

      Personal outlays increased $100.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of
$142.7 billion in the second.

      Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $720.7 billion in the
third quarter, compared with $695.1 billion in the second.

      The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
5.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.4 percent in the second.  For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.


Current-dollar GDP

      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the production of goods and services in the United
States -- increased 4.9 percent, or $207.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $17,535.4 billion.  In
the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 6.8 percent, or $284.2 billion.


________
BOX
      Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site.  Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.  In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."  For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
________




      BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov.  By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.


                                          *          *          *


                           Next release -- November 25, 2014 at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
                           Gross Domestic Product:  Third Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)
                           Corporate Profits:  Third Quarter 2014 (Preliminary Estimate)


Release dates in 2015


Gross Domestic Product

                 2014: IV and 2014 annual     2015: I          2015: II          2015: III

Advance....           January 30              April 29         July 30           October 29
Second.....           February 27             May 29           August 27         November 24
Third......           March 27                June 24          September 25      December 22


Corporate Profits

Preliminary...        ..                      May 29           August 27         November 24
Revised.......        March 27                June 24          September 25      December 22


                                        Comparisons of Revisions to GDP


	Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first
month following the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.  The "latest"
estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions, which are typically released in late July.

	Annual revisions generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and the associated quarters) and
incorporate newly available major annual source data.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at
about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and
methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy.

	The table below presents the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real and current-dollar
GDP for the different estimate vintages.  From the advance estimate to the second estimate (1 month later), the
average revision to real GDP growth without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance
estimate to the third estimate (2 months later), it is 0.6 percentage point.  From the advance estimate to the latest
estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points.  Larger average revisions for the
latest estimates reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements to the accounts, such as
the incorporation of BEA's latest benchmark input-output accounts.  The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change in real GDP 96 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating about 75 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or
below trend growth about 83 percent of the time.


                      Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
                                                  [Annual rates]

       Vintages                                   Average         Average without     Standard deviation of
       compared                                                    regard to sign      revisions without
                                                                                         regard to sign

________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.1                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................               0.1                 0.6                  0.4
Second to third......................               0.0                 0.2                  0.2

Advance to latest....................              -0.1                 1.2                  1.0


____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.2                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................               0.2                 0.6                  0.4
Second to third......................               0.1                 0.3                  0.2
Advance to latest....................               0.1                 1.3                  1.0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 NOTE.  These comparisons are based on the period from 1993 through 2013.