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News Release: Gross Domestic Product


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FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION:     8:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, JANUARY 30, 2003


Virginia H. Mannering:  (202) 606-5304                                            BEA  03-02
Recorded message:             606-5306




       GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:  FOURTH QUARTER 2002 (ADVANCE)
                  

    Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real
GDP increased 4.0 percent.

    The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4).  The fourth-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 28,
2003.

    The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were government
spending, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), equipment and software, and residential fixed
investment.  The contributions of these components were partly offset by negative contributions from
private inventory investment, from nonresidential structures, and from exports.  Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. 
    
    The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a sharp deceleration
in PCE and downturns in private inventory investment and in exports that were partly offset by a smaller
decrease in nonresidential structures and by accelerations in federal government spending and in
residential fixed investment.  Imports increased slightly more than in the third quarter.


FOOTNOTE--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified.
Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates.  Percent changes are
calculated from unrounded data and annualized.  "Real" estimates are in chained (1996) dollars.  Price
indexes are chain-type measures.

            This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/newsreleases/rels.htm>.


    The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third. 
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third.

    Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 4.2 percent in the third.  Durable goods purchases decreased 7.3 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 22.8 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 3.9 percent, compared with an increase of
1.0 percent.  Services expenditures increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent.

    Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.8 percent in the third.  Nonresidential structures decreased 9.3 percent, compared with a
decrease of 21.4 percent.  Equipment and software increased 5.0 percent, compared with an increase of
6.7 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 6.8 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1
percent.                                                          

    Real exports of goods and services decreased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 4.6 percent in the third.  Real imports of goods and services increased 3.7 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.3 percent.

    Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 10.1 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent in the third.  National defense increased
11.2 percent, compared with an increase of 6.9 percent.  Nondefense increased 8.3 percent, in contrast to
a decrease of 0.3 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.

    The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.56 percentage point from the fourth-quarter
change in real GDP, after adding 0.58 percentage point to the third-quarter change.  Private businesses
increased inventories $3.3 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $18.8 billion in the third
quarter and  $4.9 billion in the second.

    Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.3
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent in the third.


Gross domestic purchases

    Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the
third.


Disposition of personal income

    Current-dollar personal income increased $88.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $79.3 billion in the third.  Personal income increased 4.0 percent, compared with an increase
of 3.6 percent.  Personal tax and nontax payments decreased $0.7 billion, compared with a decrease of
$14.5 billion.  Personal tax and nontax payments decreased 0.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 5.1
percent.

    Disposable personal income increased $89.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $93.8 billion in the third.  Real disposable personal income increased 2.6 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.1 percent.

    Personal outlays increased $46.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $105.1
billion in the third.  Personal outlays increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 5.7 percent. 
Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $345.3 billion in the fourth
quarter, compared with $303.0 billion in the third.  The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of
disposable personal income -- increased from 3.8 percent in the third quarter to 4.3 percent in the fourth.


Current-dollar GDP

    Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
2.5 percent, or $66.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $10,572.3 billion.  In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 5.1 percent, or $129.3 billion.


2002 GDP

    Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2002 (that is, from the 2001 annual level to the 2002 annual
level), compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in 2001.

    The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2002 were personal consumption
expenditures (PCE), government spending, and private inventory investment.  The contributions of these
components were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and from
exports.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased in 2002.
    
    The acceleration in real GDP in 2002 primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory
investment, an acceleration in PCE, and smaller decreases in equipment and software and in exports that
were partly offset by a larger decrease in nonresidential structures.  There was also an upturn in imports
in 2002.

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in 2002, compared with an
increase of 1.9 percent in 2001.

    Current-dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $359.9 billion, in 2002.  Current-dollar GDP
increased 2.6 percent, or $257.6 billion, in 2001.

    During 2002 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2002), real
GDP increased 2.8 percent.  Real GDP increased 0.1 percent during 2001.  The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent during 2002, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent during
2001.


BOX
    Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site.  Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.  In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "Business Situation."  


                        *          *          *


    BEA's major national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current
Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site:

                             <www.bea.gov>


    Summary BEA estimates are available on recorded messages at the time of public release at the
following telephone numbers:

              (202) 606-5306     Gross domestic product
                    606-5303     Personal income and outlays
                    606-5362     U.S. international transactions

    Most of BEA's estimates and analyses are published in the Survey of Current Business, BEA's
monthly journal.  Subscriptions and single copies of the printed Survey are for sale by the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office.  Internet:  <bookstore.gpo.gov>;
phone: 202-512-1800; fax: 202-512-2250; mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001.


                        *          *          *


                Next release -- February 28, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
                Gross Domestic Product:  Fourth Quarter 2002 (Preliminary)           
                




                    Comparisons of Revisions to GDP

    Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source
agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of
the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"preliminary" and "final" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.  The
"latest" estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.

    Annual revisions are usually carried out each summer and cover the quarters of the most recent calendar
year and of the 2 preceding years.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year
intervals and incorporate definitional and classificational changes that update the accounts to portray more
accurately the evolving U.S. economy and statistical changes that update the accounts to reflect the introduction of
new and improved methodologies and the incorporation of newly available and revised source data.

    The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of GDP for the
different vintages of the estimates.  These comparisons can be used to assess the likely size of future revisions.  For
example, two-thirds of the revisions between the quarterly change in the advance estimate of real GDP and that in
the final estimate were within a range of -0.6 to +0.9 percentage point.
Thus, based on past history, the fourth-quarter change in real GDP now
estimated at 0.7 percent at an annual rate, is not likely to be revised below
0.1 percent or above 1.6 percent in the next two releases.



Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
                           [Annual rates]


   Vintages                    Average without                     Range
   compared                    regard to sign           Two-thirds      Nine-tenths
                                                        of revisions    of revisions

                         Current-dollar GDP


Advance to preliminary.....      0.6                  -0.5 to 0.8       -0.9 to 1.4
Advance to final...........       .7                  - .7 to 1.0       -1.0 to 1.6
Preliminary to final.......       .3                  - .3 to  .4       - .6 to  .7
Advance to latest..........      1.3                  - .6 to 2.0       -1.8 to 3.6
Preliminary to latest......      1.2                  -1.0 to 1.6       -1.5 to 3.0
Final to latest............      1.2                  -0.9 to 1.8       -1.6 to 2.9

                                                             Real GDP

Advance to preliminary.....      0.5                  -0.5 to 0.7       -0.9 to 1.2
Advance to final...........       .6                  - .6 to  .9       -1.0 to 1.3
Preliminary to final.......       .3                  - .3 to  .4       - .5 to  .6
Advance to latest..........      1.4                  -1.1 to 1.9       -1.5 to 3.2
Preliminary to latest......      1.3                  -1.0 to 1.9       -1.7 to 2.8
Final to latest...........       1.4                  -1.1 to 2.1       -1.7 to 3.0

NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1978 through 2001 for the first three comparisons in each group and on the period from
1978 through 1999 for the last three comparisons in each group.

           Table 1.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
                                                         [Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       2000   2001   2002   I 99  II 99 III 99  IV 99   I 00  II 00 III 00  IV 00   I 01  II 01 III 01  IV 01   I 02  II 02 III 02  IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Gross domestic product (GDP).    3.8     .3    2.4    3.0    2.0    5.2    7.1    2.6    4.8     .6    1.1    -.6   -1.6    -.3    2.7    5.0    1.3    4.0     .7

Personal consumption expenditures...    4.4    2.5    3.1    4.7    5.7    4.6    5.0    5.3    3.0    3.8    2.1    2.4    1.4    1.5    6.0    3.1    1.8    4.2    1.0
  Durable goods.....................    8.2    6.0    7.4    5.5   14.4   10.3   10.1   17.8   -3.7    8.1   -5.3   11.5    5.3    4.6   33.6   -6.3    2.0   22.8   -7.3
  Nondurable goods..................    3.9    2.0    3.1    4.9    4.8    2.5    7.5    2.2    4.9    2.0    2.7    2.3    -.3    1.3    3.6    7.9    -.1    1.0    3.9
  Services..........................    3.8    2.0    2.2    4.4    4.4    4.5    2.8    4.4    3.6    3.9    3.3     .6    1.5     .9    2.1    2.9    2.7    2.3    1.3

Gross private domestic investment...    6.2  -10.7     .5    7.2   -4.7   11.0   13.7    2.3   17.3   -6.0   -3.4  -19.7  -17.6   -5.2  -17.3   18.2    7.9    3.6    -.7
  Fixed investment..................    6.1   -3.8   -3.2    7.7    7.1    5.9    2.9   13.3    6.7     .2   -2.4   -2.2  -11.1   -4.3   -8.9    -.5   -1.0    -.3    3.1
    Nonresidential..................    7.8   -5.2   -5.8    7.7    7.9    7.7    3.0   15.0   10.2    3.5   -3.2   -5.4  -14.5   -6.0  -10.9   -5.8   -2.4    -.8    1.5
      Structures....................    6.5   -1.7  -16.4   -4.1   -5.1   -6.3    6.1   13.8    8.2   12.1    3.6   -3.1   -8.4    2.9  -30.1  -14.2  -17.6  -21.4   -9.3
      Equipment and software........    8.2   -6.4   -1.8   12.0   12.5   12.5    2.1   15.5   10.9     .9   -5.4   -6.3  -16.7   -9.2   -2.5   -2.7    3.3    6.7    5.0
    Residential.....................    1.1     .3    3.8    7.6    4.9     .9    2.7    8.3   -3.0   -9.3     .0    8.2    -.5     .4   -3.5   14.2    2.7    1.1    6.8
  Change in private inventories.....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....

Net exports of goods and services...  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....
  Exports...........................    9.7   -5.4   -1.3   -6.9    4.3   10.6   12.6    7.7   14.6   11.6   -4.0   -6.0  -12.4  -17.3   -9.6    3.5   14.3    4.6   -1.7
    Goods...........................   11.3   -5.9   -3.3   -9.0    4.6   13.2   15.3    6.7   16.1   19.5   -7.1   -6.1  -16.1  -18.6   -7.9   -3.4   15.9    4.1   -6.7
    Services........................    6.0   -4.0    3.4   -1.5    3.4    4.7    6.4   10.2   11.2   -5.9    4.4   -6.0   -2.5  -13.9  -13.8   21.7   10.7    5.9   10.3
  Imports...........................   13.2   -2.9    3.5    8.4   15.4   14.5    9.4   14.7   18.6   13.8   -1.6   -7.9   -6.8  -11.8   -5.3    8.5   22.2    3.3    3.7
    Goods...........................   13.5   -3.3    3.7   10.1   17.1   15.4    9.8   13.7   20.3   13.6   -1.8   -9.2   -9.4   -9.6   -3.3    3.7   27.9    3.4    2.7
    Services........................   11.6    -.5    1.9     .2    6.8    9.7    7.1   20.6    9.6   15.1    -.5     .3    8.5  -23.2  -16.5   35.7   -2.1    3.1    8.6

Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment...............    2.7    3.7    4.4    3.0    2.9    5.3    7.1   -1.2    4.6   -1.0    2.9    5.7    5.6   -1.1   10.5    5.6    1.4    2.9    4.6
  Federal...........................    1.3    4.8    7.4   -3.3    2.6    7.4    9.9  -13.2   16.0   -7.2    2.0    9.5    6.0    1.2   13.5    7.4    7.5    4.3   10.1
    National defense................    -.1    5.0    9.3   -5.2    -.2   14.0   10.0  -19.9   15.0   -6.1    4.7    8.3    2.7    4.6   14.3   11.6    7.8    6.9   11.2
    Nondefense......................    3.6    4.5    4.2     .2    7.9   -3.6    9.7     .3   17.9   -9.2   -2.6   11.8   12.0   -4.5   12.1     .4    6.9    -.3    8.3
  State and local...................    3.5    3.1    2.9    6.5    3.0    4.2    5.6    5.6    -.8    2.4    3.3    3.8    5.4   -2.3    8.9    4.6   -1.7    2.2    1.7

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product...    3.7    1.5    1.8    3.1    4.1    4.3    5.2    4.4    3.1    1.7    1.3    2.8    -.4    -.2    4.2    2.4    -.1    3.4    1.3
  Gross domestic purchases..........    4.4     .4    2.9    4.8    3.3    5.8    6.8    3.6    5.7    1.2    1.3   -1.1   -1.1    -.1    2.9    5.6    2.6    3.9    1.4
  Final sales to domestic
   purchasers.......................    4.3    1.6    2.3    4.9    5.4    4.9    5.0    5.4    3.9    2.4    1.4    2.2     .0     .1    4.3    3.0    1.3    3.3    1.9
  Gross national product (GNP)......    3.7     .2  .....    4.4    2.1    4.8    7.6    2.2    5.1     .2    1.6   -1.4    -.8   -1.1    3.7    3.7     .4    4.4  .....
  Disposable personal income........    4.8    1.8    4.5    2.7     .8    1.5    4.8    8.4    4.8    4.3    1.8    -.1    -.6   10.5   -7.6   14.5    3.9    3.1    2.6

  Current-dollar measures:
    GDP.............................    5.9    2.6    3.6    4.9    3.5    6.5    8.9    5.7    7.3    2.2    3.2    3.0     .9    1.9    2.2    6.5    2.5    5.1    2.5
    Final sales of domestic product.    5.9    3.9    3.0    5.0    5.7    5.6    7.0    7.6    5.5    3.4    3.4    6.6    2.1    2.0    3.6    3.7    1.2    4.5    3.1
    Gross domestic purchases........    7.0    2.4    4.1    6.3    5.5    7.8    9.1    7.4    8.0    3.4    3.4    2.1     .6    -.2    3.4    6.9    4.9    5.2    3.2
    Final sales to domestic
     purchasers.....................    7.0    3.6    3.5    6.4    7.6    6.9    7.3    9.3    6.2    4.6    3.6    5.5    1.7    -.1    4.8    4.2    3.6    4.6    3.8
    GNP.............................    5.9    2.6  .....    6.3    3.7    6.1    9.4    5.3    7.5    1.9    3.7    2.2    1.7    1.1    3.2    5.1    1.6    5.5  .....
    Disposable personal income......    7.4    3.8    5.9    4.0    3.1    3.7    7.3   12.2    7.2    6.4    4.0    3.2    1.2   10.4   -6.9   15.8    6.7    4.9    4.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.

                                                Table 2.--Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
                                                             [Quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       2000   2001   2002   I 99  II 99 III 99  IV 99   I 00  II 00 III 00  IV 00   I 01  II 01 III 01  IV 01   I 02  II 02 III 02  IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change at annual rate:

    Gross domestic product..........    3.8     .3    2.4    3.0    2.0    5.2    7.1    2.6    4.8     .6    1.1    -.6   -1.6    -.3    2.7    5.0    1.3    4.0     .7

Percentage points at annual rates:

  Personal consumption expenditures.   2.94   1.67   2.12   3.06   3.72   3.14   3.45   3.54   2.11   2.54   1.37   1.53    .92    .97   4.05   2.22   1.22   2.93    .67
    Durable goods...................    .65    .48    .60    .43   1.09    .81    .81   1.36   -.30    .63   -.44    .87    .42    .36   2.45   -.55    .16   1.74   -.64
    Nondurable goods................    .77    .39    .62    .94    .93    .51   1.48    .45    .99    .40    .52    .45   -.07    .25    .73   1.57   -.02    .22    .77
    Services........................   1.51    .80    .89   1.70   1.70   1.81   1.16   1.73   1.43   1.51   1.29    .21    .57    .35    .87   1.20   1.08    .97    .55

  Gross private domestic investment.   1.08  -1.90    .08   1.25   -.86   1.85   2.32    .39   2.92  -1.09   -.55  -3.65  -3.09   -.81  -2.88   2.53   1.16    .55   -.10
    Fixed investment................   1.03   -.65   -.51   1.26   1.18   1.01    .53   2.15   1.15    .04   -.41   -.38  -1.95   -.72  -1.49   -.07   -.15   -.03    .46
      Nonresidential................    .98   -.66   -.68    .95    .97    .97    .41   1.80   1.28    .46   -.41   -.71  -1.93   -.73  -1.33   -.66   -.27   -.08    .16
        Structures..................    .20   -.05   -.52   -.14   -.17   -.20    .18    .40    .25    .37    .12   -.10   -.29    .10  -1.12   -.44   -.53   -.62   -.24
        Equipment and software......    .78   -.61   -.16   1.08   1.14   1.17    .22   1.41   1.03    .09   -.53   -.61  -1.64   -.83   -.21   -.22    .26    .53    .40
      Residential...................    .05    .01    .17    .32    .21    .04    .12    .35   -.13   -.42    .00    .34   -.02    .02   -.16    .60    .12    .05    .30
    Change in private inventories...    .06  -1.24    .60   -.01  -2.04    .84   1.80  -1.77   1.77  -1.12   -.14  -3.27  -1.14   -.09  -1.39   2.60   1.31    .58   -.56

  Net exports of goods and services.   -.75   -.18   -.61  -1.77  -1.41   -.75    .04  -1.17  -1.00   -.72   -.23    .53   -.42   -.24   -.28   -.75  -1.40   -.01   -.68
    Exports.........................   1.04   -.59   -.14   -.78    .43   1.08   1.31    .82   1.53   1.25   -.46   -.69  -1.42  -1.94   -.99    .33   1.29    .45   -.17
      Goods.........................    .85   -.47   -.24   -.72    .33    .94   1.11    .51   1.18   1.44   -.60   -.49  -1.34  -1.49   -.56   -.23    .99    .28   -.47
      Services......................    .19   -.13    .10   -.06    .10    .14    .20    .31    .35   -.19    .14   -.20   -.08   -.45   -.42    .56    .30    .17    .30
    Imports.........................  -1.79    .42   -.47   -.99  -1.84  -1.83  -1.27  -1.99  -2.54  -1.97    .23   1.22   1.00   1.70    .70  -1.08  -2.69   -.47   -.51
      Goods.........................  -1.54    .40   -.40  -1.01  -1.72  -1.64  -1.12  -1.56  -2.32  -1.64    .22   1.21   1.18   1.17    .37   -.40  -2.74   -.40   -.31
      Services......................   -.24    .01   -.07    .02   -.12   -.19   -.15   -.43   -.21   -.32    .01    .01   -.18    .53    .33   -.68    .05   -.07   -.20

  Government consumption
   expenditures and gross investment    .49    .65    .81    .51    .50    .93   1.26   -.20    .83   -.18    .51    .99   1.00   -.21   1.85   1.04    .27    .56    .86
    Federal.........................    .08    .29    .47   -.21    .15    .44    .60   -.85    .91   -.45    .12    .54    .36    .07    .80    .47    .47    .29    .65
      National defense..............    .00    .19    .37   -.21   -.01    .52    .39   -.86    .54   -.24    .17    .30    .10    .18    .54    .46    .32    .29    .46
      Nondefense....................    .08    .10    .10    .00    .16   -.08    .21    .01    .37   -.21   -.06    .24    .25   -.11    .26    .01    .16   -.01    .19
    State and local.................    .41    .36    .35    .72    .34    .49    .67    .65   -.08    .28    .39    .45    .64   -.28   1.05    .56   -.21    .27    .21
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.

                                      Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Billions of current dollars                                      Billions of chained (1996) dollars
                                  ------------------------------------------------------  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Seasonally adjusted                                    Seasonally adjusted                Change from preceding
                                                          at annual rates                                        at annual rates                          period
                                            --------------------------------------------          --------------------------------------------  -------------------------
                                       2002    IV 01     I 02    II 02   III 02    IV 02     2002    IV 01     I 02    II 02   III 02    IV 02     2002   III 02    IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Gross domestic product (GDP)... 10,442.1 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,572.3  9,436.1  9,248.8  9,363.2  9,392.4  9,485.6  9,503.2    221.6     93.2     17.6

Personal consumption expenditures.  7,300.9  7,099.9  7,174.2  7,254.7  7,360.7  7,413.8  6,573.0  6,464.0  6,513.8  6,542.4  6,609.9  6,625.7    195.8     67.5     15.8

  Durable goods...................    872.4    882.6    859.0    856.9    897.8    876.0  1,000.5    992.0    975.9    980.7  1,032.4  1,012.9     68.6     51.7    -19.5
    Motor vehicles and parts......    376.1    399.5    365.8    362.1    400.7    375.9    382.3    400.4    370.0    369.1    407.6    382.6     20.4     38.5    -25.0
    Furniture and household
     equipment....................    319.1    311.5    317.1    319.1    319.2    321.1    438.7    413.6    428.2    435.2    441.4    449.8     40.7      6.2      8.4
    Other.........................    177.2    171.5    176.1    175.8    177.9    178.9    186.0    178.9    184.2    184.1    187.0    188.7     10.7      2.9      1.7

  Nondurable goods................  2,113.9  2,044.4  2,085.1  2,108.2  2,116.9  2,145.4  1,928.0  1,885.0  1,921.4  1,920.9  1,925.8  1,944.2     58.2      4.9     18.4
    Food..........................  1,028.0  1,002.8  1,025.0  1,023.9  1,024.8  1,038.3    901.1    887.1    901.4    899.2    897.9    906.0     14.1     -1.3      8.1
    Clothing and shoes............    324.2    317.4    325.8    323.9    321.0    326.1    356.9    344.8    355.8    355.1    355.3    361.3     19.2       .2      6.0
    Gasoline, fuel oil, and
     other energy goods...........    173.7    156.7    156.2    174.7    178.2    185.6    157.3    153.4    157.2    156.5    157.5    157.9      6.1      1.0       .4
      Gasoline and oil............    158.9    142.2    142.3    160.7    163.5    168.9    144.9    141.4    145.1    144.7    145.4    144.6      6.1       .7      -.8
      Fuel oil and coal...........     14.8     14.5     13.9     14.0     14.7     16.7     12.6     12.2     12.4     12.1     12.4     13.5       .0       .3      1.1
    Other.........................    588.0    567.5    578.0    585.6    592.9    595.3    515.9    502.0    510.1    513.1    518.0    522.5     20.4      4.9      4.5

  Services........................  4,314.5  4,172.9  4,230.1  4,289.5  4,346.0  4,392.5  3,673.6  3,616.6  3,642.2  3,666.2  3,687.0  3,699.1     78.7     20.8     12.1
    Housing.......................  1,071.5  1,035.5  1,051.7  1,066.0  1,078.0  1,090.4    880.1    869.6    874.0    878.5    882.1    885.8     14.1      3.6      3.7
    Household operation...........    403.1    396.9    399.2    400.9    406.3    406.0    382.8    377.7    381.3    382.9    384.7    382.3       .2      1.8     -2.4
      Electricity and gas.........    145.7    143.1    143.9    144.9    147.4    146.6    134.1    130.2    133.5    133.6    135.7    133.8      -.4      2.1     -1.9
      Other household operation...    257.5    253.8    255.4    256.1    258.9    259.5    248.8    247.8    248.0    249.5    249.1    248.7       .6      -.4      -.4
    Transportation................    275.9    269.0    273.3    275.6    276.1    278.7    250.4    248.6    250.9    250.3    249.8    250.5      -.7      -.5       .7
    Medical care..................  1,149.0  1,103.1  1,119.0  1,139.3  1,158.8  1,179.0    978.6    954.9    963.4    974.7    984.4    992.1     40.3      9.7      7.7
    Recreation....................    285.1    276.6    279.0    283.8    285.9    291.6    237.4    234.8    235.6    237.1    237.1    239.9      4.2       .0      2.8
    Other.........................  1,129.8  1,091.8  1,107.8  1,123.8  1,140.9  1,146.7    942.4    929.2    935.3    941.0    947.0    946.3     19.7      6.0      -.7

Gross private domestic investment.  1,586.3  1,500.7  1,559.4  1,588.0  1,597.3  1,600.5  1,582.8  1,490.3  1,554.0  1,583.9  1,598.0  1,595.3      8.2     14.1     -2.7

  Fixed investment................  1,587.8  1,597.2  1,589.4  1,584.6  1,579.7  1,597.5  1,576.1  1,578.4  1,576.4  1,572.6  1,571.6  1,583.6    -51.3     -1.0     12.0
    Nonresidential................  1,116.9  1,149.8  1,126.8  1,115.8  1,109.8  1,115.1  1,182.8  1,206.4  1,188.4  1,181.1  1,178.7  1,183.2    -72.3     -2.4      4.5
      Structures..................    269.3    302.3    288.3    275.2    259.4    254.4    226.5    252.7    243.2    231.7    218.2    212.9    -44.4    -13.5     -5.3
        Nonresidential buildings,
         including farm...........    178.9    200.4    192.4    182.3    171.1    169.6    145.3    163.5    157.1    148.2    139.1    137.0    -33.4     -9.1     -2.1
        Utilities.................     53.3     54.4     56.3     53.9     51.5     51.5     47.5     49.3     50.8     48.4     45.6     45.4     -2.8     -2.8      -.2
        Mining exploration,
         shafts, and wells........     30.6     40.4     32.3     31.7     31.0     27.6     29.3     34.8     30.2     30.3     29.9     26.7     -4.7      -.4     -3.2
        Other structures..........      6.5      7.2      7.3      7.3      5.8      5.7      5.6      6.3      6.3      6.3      5.0      4.9     -3.7     -1.3      -.1
      Equipment and software......    847.6    847.4    838.5    840.7    850.4    860.7    970.4    960.3    953.7    961.4    977.2    989.3    -17.8     15.8     12.1
        Information processing
         equipment and software...    399.9    385.5    388.7    397.1    406.9    407.0    563.4    531.8    540.4    557.0    575.2    580.8     14.9     18.2      5.6
          Computers and
           peripheral equipment...     74.4     69.3     71.9     72.8     76.8     75.9    284.1    243.3    262.1    271.6    297.6    304.9     44.2     26.0      7.3
          Software................    183.2    178.9    177.2    181.0    186.3    188.3    186.1    180.6    179.0    184.3    189.4    191.9      4.1      5.1      2.5
          Other...................    142.4    137.3    139.6    143.3    143.8    142.8    157.9    151.2    154.1    158.5    159.7    159.2     -6.0      1.2      -.5
        Industrial equipment......    151.9    149.8    153.4    150.5    153.3    150.3    146.6    144.7    148.3    145.6    147.9    144.8     -7.2      2.3     -3.1
        Transportation equipment..    148.5    168.3    154.1    145.2    141.7    153.0    146.6    165.4    151.5    143.4    141.7    149.8    -17.0     -1.7      8.1
        Other.....................    147.3    143.8    142.3    148.0    148.5    150.3    139.2    136.2    134.6    140.1    140.3    141.9     -1.5       .2      1.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.

                                Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Billions of current dollars                                      Billions of chained (1996) dollars
                                  ------------------------------------------------------  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Seasonally adjusted                                    Seasonally adjusted                Change from preceding
                                                          at annual rates                                        at annual rates                          period
                                            --------------------------------------------          --------------------------------------------  -------------------------
                                       2002    IV 01     I 02    II 02   III 02    IV 02     2002    IV 01     I 02    II 02   III 02    IV 02     2002   III 02    IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Residential...................    470.9    447.4    462.6    468.7    469.9    482.4    387.6    371.0    383.6    386.1    387.1    393.6     14.1      1.0      6.5
      Structures..................    461.4    438.0    453.0    459.2    460.4    472.8    377.9    361.5    373.9    376.4    377.4    383.8     13.9      1.0      6.4
        Single family.............    246.2    234.3    241.1    244.3    245.3    253.9    199.9    191.3    197.2    198.4    199.8    204.4      7.3      1.4      4.6
        Multifamily...............     33.6     31.8     34.2     34.2     33.4     32.4     26.3     25.1     27.0     26.8     26.2     25.1      1.9      -.6     -1.1
        Other.....................    181.6    171.9    177.7    180.7    181.7    186.5    151.5    145.1    149.6    151.0    151.3    154.2      4.6       .3      2.9
      Equipment...................      9.6      9.4      9.5      9.6      9.5      9.6      9.7      9.6      9.7      9.7      9.7      9.8       .2       .0       .1
  Change in private inventories...     -1.5    -96.5    -29.9      3.4     17.6      3.0      -.5    -98.4    -28.9      4.9     18.8      3.3     60.9     13.9    -15.5
    Farm..........................      -.7      3.0      5.3       .4     -2.3     -6.4      -.3      3.6      6.4       .8     -2.2     -6.4     -2.3     -3.0     -4.2
    Construction, mining,
     and utilities................      -.1      4.7      1.6     -1.1     -2.5      1.6       .0      4.3      1.6     -1.0     -2.3      1.5     -6.4     -1.3      3.8
    Manufacturing.................    -11.3    -39.6    -31.1    -14.2     -2.7      2.9    -11.4    -40.2    -31.9    -14.1     -2.6      2.9     24.8     11.5      5.5
    Wholesale trade...............     -6.5    -25.4    -19.5     -9.0      7.1     -4.5     -6.3    -26.8    -19.8     -8.7      7.9     -4.6     10.2     16.6    -12.5
    Retail trade..................     14.6    -41.5     13.8     22.2     15.6      6.6     14.4    -40.6     13.8     22.0     15.5      6.3     34.7     -6.5     -9.2
    Other industries..............      2.6      2.3       .0      5.1      2.3      2.9      2.5      2.3       .0      5.0      2.3      2.8      -.1     -2.7       .5

Net exports of goods and services.   -418.1   -344.5   -360.1   -425.6   -432.9   -453.9   -482.2   -425.3   -446.6   -487.4   -488.0   -506.9    -66.3      -.6    -18.9

  Exports.........................  1,017.6    971.1    977.5  1,018.1  1,038.6  1,036.2  1,061.7  1,021.8  1,030.6  1,065.5  1,077.7  1,073.0    -14.4     12.2     -4.7
    Goods.........................    705.9    687.7    679.8    709.4    722.6    711.9    759.4    744.6    738.1    765.8    773.5    760.3    -25.8      7.7    -13.2
      Foods, feeds, and beverages.     49.3     49.7     49.7     48.6     49.5     49.6     60.7     63.1     63.4     61.3     59.4     58.7     -1.6     -1.9      -.7
      Industrial supplies and
       materials..................    153.6    147.2    144.9    155.6    156.3    157.7    162.7    159.8    158.5    165.8    163.1    163.5       .5     -2.7       .4
      Capital goods, except
       automotive.................    293.5    288.7    284.4    294.1    301.7    293.6    327.2    320.9    316.0    327.7    336.8    328.3    -28.6      9.1     -8.5
      Automotive vehicles,
       engines, and parts.........     78.5     74.3     73.8     80.4     82.5     77.4     76.1     72.3     71.7     78.1     79.9     74.7      2.7      1.8     -5.2
      Consumer goods, except
       automotive.................     84.9     84.5     82.2     84.2     86.0     87.3     85.0     83.9     82.3     84.5     86.0     87.2     -2.9      1.5      1.2
      Other.......................     46.1     43.3     44.8     46.4     46.7     46.4     47.4     44.9     46.6     47.9     47.7     47.2      2.9      -.2      -.5
    Services......................    311.7    283.4    297.7    308.8    316.0    324.3    301.9    278.2    292.2    299.7    304.0    311.6      9.9      4.3      7.6

  Imports.........................  1,435.7  1,315.6  1,337.5  1,443.7  1,471.5  1,490.1  1,543.9  1,447.2  1,477.1  1,552.9  1,565.7  1,579.9     51.9     12.8     14.2
    Goods.........................  1,190.0  1,098.3  1,102.3  1,202.9  1,220.9  1,233.8  1,317.2  1,238.7  1,250.0  1,329.2  1,340.3  1,349.2     46.7     11.1      8.9
      Foods, feeds, and beverages.     49.5     47.1     47.5     49.4     50.4     50.8     54.3     52.6     53.2     54.6     55.0     54.3      2.6       .4      -.7
      Industrial supplies and
       materials, except
       petroleum and products.....    158.7    149.0    149.5    159.0    163.5    162.8    165.2    158.5    160.8    165.1    169.1    165.9      4.3      4.0     -3.2
      Petroleum and products......    104.0     81.0     76.7    108.1    110.7    120.6     86.7     86.7     82.3     88.6     85.5     90.4     -2.5     -3.1      4.9
      Capital goods, except
       automotive.................    283.8    272.3    277.4    288.4    285.3    284.2    393.0    371.5    382.1    398.2    394.9    396.9     -7.0     -3.3      2.0
      Automotive vehicles,
       engines, and parts.........    204.2    187.5    190.4    207.5    210.0    208.7    200.2    184.2    187.3    203.8    205.9    204.0     13.5      2.1     -1.9
      Consumer goods, except
       automotive.................    307.0    278.6    285.4    307.2    315.0    320.5    326.0    294.2    302.4    326.4    334.4    340.8     27.1      8.0      6.4
      Other.......................     82.7     82.8     75.4     83.2     86.0     86.3     83.4     83.6     76.4     84.0     86.6     86.4      3.6      2.6      -.2
    Services......................    245.7    217.3    235.2    240.8    250.6    256.2    226.6    208.9    225.5    224.3    226.0    230.7      4.2      1.7      4.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See note at the end of the table.

                                Table 3.--Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period--Continued
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                               Billions of current dollars                                      Billions of chained (1996) dollars
                                  ------------------------------------------------------  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Seasonally adjusted                                    Seasonally adjusted                Change from preceding
                                                          at annual rates                                        at annual rates                          period
                                            --------------------------------------------          --------------------------------------------  -------------------------
                                       2002    IV 01     I 02    II 02   III 02    IV 02     2002    IV 01     I 02    II 02   III 02    IV 02     2002   III 02    IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Government consumption
 expenditures and
 gross investment.................  1,973.1  1,896.8  1,939.5  1,959.8  1,981.1  2,011.9  1,712.8  1,674.5  1,697.3  1,703.3  1,715.6  1,735.1     72.4     12.3     19.5

  Federal.........................    693.5    646.9    672.0    688.2    697.7    716.0    612.9    587.2    597.8    608.7    615.1    630.2     42.3      6.4     15.1
    National defense..............    447.5    412.8    431.7    442.1    451.2    464.8    400.0    378.0    388.5    395.8    402.5    413.3     34.0      6.7     10.8
      Consumption expenditures....    386.6    356.0    372.1    382.5    388.9    402.9    336.9    319.1    326.7    333.9    338.0    349.1     28.0      4.1     11.1
      Gross investment............     60.9     56.8     59.7     59.6     62.4     61.9     63.5     59.0     62.2     62.2     65.0     64.4      6.2      2.8      -.6
    Nondefense....................    246.0    234.1    240.3    246.1    246.5    251.2    213.0    209.1    209.3    212.9    212.7    217.0      8.6      -.2      4.3
      Consumption expenditures....    199.7    187.5    194.2    198.6    200.9    205.1    167.6    163.7    164.3    166.5    167.9    171.6      6.5      1.4      3.7
      Gross investment............     46.3     46.6     46.1     47.5     45.5     46.1     45.8     45.9     45.4     47.0     45.1     45.6      2.2     -1.9       .5

  State and local.................  1,279.6  1,249.8  1,267.5  1,271.6  1,283.3  1,295.9  1,100.0  1,087.1  1,099.3  1,094.7  1,100.6  1,105.3     30.6      5.9      4.7
      Consumption expenditures....  1,034.6  1,008.2  1,017.7  1,030.6  1,039.6  1,050.5    881.2    870.7    875.9    879.4    883.0    886.4     24.4      3.6      3.4
      Gross investment............    245.0    241.7    249.7    241.1    243.8    245.4    218.9    216.5    223.7    215.3    217.6    219.0      6.1      2.3      1.4

Residual..........................    .....    .....    .....    .....    .....    .....    -88.1    -53.5    -71.2    -75.8   -102.5   -103.3    -51.6    -26.7      -.8

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product. 10,443.6 10,249.4 10,343.0 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,569.3  9,425.6  9,324.9  9,379.4  9,377.9  9,457.2  9,488.2    167.2     79.3     31.0
  Gross domestic purchases........ 10,860.2 10,497.4 10,673.1 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,026.2  9,880.6  9,645.3  9,778.2  9,840.8  9,934.7  9,968.6    279.9     93.9     33.9
  Final sales to domestic
   purchasers..................... 10,861.7 10,593.9 10,703.1 10,799.0 10,921.5 11,023.2  9,870.0  9,722.3  9,794.4  9,826.0  9,906.1  9,953.4    225.1     80.1     47.3

  Gross domestic product.......... 10,442.1 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,572.3  9,436.1  9,248.8  9,363.2  9,392.4  9,485.6  9,503.2    221.6     93.2     17.6

  Plus: Income receipts from
   the rest of the world..........    .....    269.0    264.7    276.0    287.3    .....    .....    247.4    242.8    251.8    261.3    .....    .....      9.5    .....
  Less: Income payments to
   the rest of the world..........    .....    233.7    262.8    296.1    298.2    .....    .....    213.1    239.2    268.2    269.5    .....    .....      1.3    .....

  Equals: Gross national product..    ..... 10,188.1 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3    .....    .....  9,283.5  9,367.5  9,376.7  9,477.9    .....    .....    101.2    .....

  Net domestic product............  9,048.9  8,814.3  8,949.6  8,987.0  9,101.0  9,157.9  8,052.1  7,926.7  8,017.7  8,017.0  8,085.5  8,088.2    146.7     68.5      2.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Note.--Users are cautioned that particularly for components
for which relative prices are changing rapidly, the use of
chained-dollar estimates to calculate component shares or component
contributions to real growth may be misleading even just a few years
from the base year.  For accurate estimates of the contributions to
percent changes in real GDP, use table 2.
  See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.

                        Table 4.--Chain-Type Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period
                                                         [Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       2000   2001   2002   I 99  II 99 III 99  IV 99   I 00  II 00 III 00  IV 00   I 01  II 01 III 01  IV 01   I 02  II 02 III 02  IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Gross domestic product (GDP).    2.1    2.4    1.1    1.8    1.5    1.2    1.7    3.1    2.3    1.6    2.1    3.7    2.5    2.2    -.5    1.3    1.2    1.0    1.8

Personal consumption expenditures...    2.5    2.0    1.4    1.2    2.3    2.2    2.4    3.4    2.3    2.1    2.2    3.3    1.8    -.1     .8    1.1    2.7    1.7    1.9
  Durable goods.....................   -1.7   -1.9   -2.8   -3.3   -1.9   -1.7   -2.0   -2.0    -.8   -2.2   -1.2   -1.2   -3.4   -2.7   -1.5   -4.2   -2.9   -1.9   -2.2
  Nondurable goods..................    3.8    1.5     .4    1.8    4.6    3.4    3.7    5.3    3.0    2.8    1.8    1.8    2.9   -1.4   -3.5     .2    4.6     .6    1.6
  Services..........................    2.8    3.1    2.7    1.9    2.0    2.3    2.7    3.6    2.5    2.6    3.2    5.1    2.3    1.1    3.5    2.7    3.0    3.0    3.0

Gross private domestic investment...    1.0    1.2    -.5     .2    -.1    -.5     .5    2.1    1.2    1.7    1.2    2.0    1.1    -.4    -.2   -1.5    -.4   -1.1    1.4
  Fixed investment..................    1.1    1.2    -.4     .3     .0    -.4     .5    2.3    1.3    1.8    1.3    1.7    1.2    -.2    -.1   -1.5    -.2    -.9    1.4
    Nonresidential..................     .1     .2   -1.4   -1.0   -1.5   -1.6    -.5     .7     .4    1.3     .5     .4     .1   -1.1   -1.6   -2.0   -1.4   -1.3     .4
      Structures....................    4.0    5.0    -.7    1.3    1.8    2.2    3.2    5.3    4.0    4.6    5.3   10.5    4.2    -.3   -1.6   -3.6     .7     .4    2.1
      Equipment and software........   -1.2   -1.5   -1.6   -1.7   -2.5   -2.8   -1.6    -.7    -.8     .2   -1.1   -2.9   -1.4   -1.5   -1.6   -1.5   -2.1   -1.9    -.2
    Residential.....................    4.4    4.1    2.0    4.1    4.5    3.3    3.2    7.0    3.9    3.1    3.7    5.6    4.5    2.5    3.7     .0    2.6     .0    4.0
  Change in private inventories.....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....

Net exports of goods and services...  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....  .....
  Exports...........................    1.4    -.8    -.2   -1.3     .4     .7    1.7    2.0    2.0     .8     .1    -.8   -1.7   -1.9   -3.8    -.8    3.0    3.5     .8
    Goods...........................    1.2    -.7    -.5   -1.4    -.3     .7    2.2    1.3    1.6     .4     .4    -.2   -1.5   -2.4   -3.7   -1.1    2.3    3.4     .9
    Services........................    2.1   -1.0     .3   -1.0    2.1     .8     .5    3.9    3.0    2.0    -.4   -2.3   -2.1    -.6   -4.2     .0    4.6    3.7     .6
  Imports...........................    4.5   -2.9     .3   -3.8    4.9    5.8    5.5    6.6    1.1    4.6     .9   -2.5   -5.9  -17.0    4.7   -1.6   11.1    4.4    1.4
    Goods...........................    4.8   -2.9   -1.6   -2.5    5.2    6.3    6.3    6.8    1.2    4.5     .8   -3.7   -6.4   -6.6  -11.1   -2.1   10.9    2.7    1.6
    Services........................    3.3   -2.9   11.8  -10.0    3.7    3.7    1.7    5.9     .7    4.8    1.1    3.8   -3.2  -57.7  167.5    1.1   12.2   13.6     .7

Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment...............    3.9    2.4    1.7    3.3    3.6    3.2    3.1    6.4    3.0    2.9    2.7    4.2    1.8    -.3    -.3    3.6    2.8    1.4    1.7
  Federal...........................    3.0    1.7    2.8    4.7    1.8    2.1    1.6    8.1     .7    1.6     .1    4.6    1.5     .5    -.4    8.4    2.3    1.3     .6
    National defense................    3.0    1.6    2.4    4.7    1.5    2.0    1.9    7.5     .7    2.0     .6    4.0    1.1     .6   -1.1    7.3    2.0    1.5    1.2
    Nondefense......................    3.1    1.9    3.5    4.7    2.5    2.3     .9    9.3     .6     .9    -.7    5.6    2.2     .4     .7   10.4    2.9    1.0    -.4
  State and local...................    4.3    2.7    1.1    2.5    4.5    3.7    3.9    5.5    4.2    3.6    4.0    4.1    1.9    -.8    -.3    1.1    3.1    1.5    2.2

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product...    2.1    2.4    1.1    1.8    1.6    1.3    1.7    3.1    2.4    1.7    2.1    3.6    2.5    2.2    -.5    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.8
  Gross domestic purchases..........    2.5    1.9    1.2    1.4    2.1    1.9    2.2    3.7    2.2    2.2    2.1    3.3    1.7    -.2     .4    1.2    2.3    1.2    1.8
  Final sales to domestic
   purchasers.......................    2.5    1.9    1.2    1.4    2.1    1.9    2.2    3.7    2.2    2.2    2.1    3.2    1.7    -.1     .5    1.1    2.3    1.3    1.8
  Gross national product (GNP)......    2.1    2.4  .....    1.8    1.5    1.2    1.7    3.1    2.3    1.6    2.1    3.7    2.5    2.2    -.5    1.3    1.2    1.0  .....

  Implicit price deflators:
    GDP.............................    2.1    2.4    1.1    1.8    1.5    1.2    1.7    3.1    2.3    1.6    2.1    3.7    2.5    2.2    -.5    1.3    1.2    1.0    1.8
    Gross domestic purchases........    2.5    1.9    1.2    1.4    2.1    1.9    2.2    3.7    2.2    2.2    2.2    3.2    1.7    -.1     .4    1.2    2.3    1.2    1.8
    GNP.............................    2.1    2.4  .....    1.8    1.5    1.2    1.7    3.1    2.3    1.7    2.1    3.7    2.5    2.2    -.5    1.4    1.2    1.0  .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.

                                  Table 5.--Quantity and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
                                                     [Index numbers, 1996=100]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                   Seasonally adjusted
                                                                                ---------------------------------------------------
                                                  2000       2001       2002      IV 01       I 02      II 02     III 02      IV 02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Gross domestic product:
          Chain-type quantity index........     117.64     117.94     120.77     118.37     119.84     120.21     121.41     121.63
          Chain-type price index...........     106.89     109.42     110.66     109.78     110.14     110.48     110.76     111.24
          Implicit price deflator..........     106.89     109.42     110.66     109.78     110.14     110.48     110.76     111.25

Personal consumption expenditures:
  Chain-type quantity index................     118.83     121.76     125.50     123.42     124.37     124.92     126.20     126.51
  Chain-type price index...................     107.39     109.56     111.07     109.84     110.14     110.89     111.36     111.90

  Durable goods:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     142.58     151.16     162.29     160.91     158.30     159.08     167.47     164.31
    Chain-type price index.................      91.46      89.70      87.19      88.95      88.00      87.36      86.94      86.46
  Nondurable goods:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     116.50     118.79     122.49     119.76     122.07     122.03     122.35     123.51
    Chain-type price index.................     107.59     109.17     109.63     108.45     108.52     109.75     109.92     110.35
  Services:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     115.67     117.98     120.57     118.69     119.54     120.32     121.01     121.40
    Chain-type price index.................     110.85     114.32     117.44     115.39     116.15     117.00     117.88     118.75

Private fixed investment:
  Chain-type quantity index................     139.52     134.20     129.96     130.16     129.99     129.68     129.60     130.59
  Chain-type price index...................     100.00     101.16     100.74     101.19     100.82     100.76     100.52     100.87

  Nonresidential:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     147.23     139.55     131.51     134.13     132.13     131.32     131.05     131.55
    Chain-type price index.................      95.59      95.73      94.43      95.31      94.82      94.48      94.17      94.25
  Residential:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     118.88     119.22     123.73     118.44     122.44     123.25     123.59     125.65
    Chain-type price index.................     114.40     119.09     121.49     120.60     120.61     121.40     121.38     122.57

Exports of goods and services:
  Chain-type quantity index................     130.09     123.10     121.45     116.89     117.89     121.89     123.28     122.74
  Chain-type price index...................      96.83      96.10      95.87      95.06      94.88      95.58      96.41      96.60
Imports of goods and services:
  Chain-type quantity index................     159.48     154.91     160.30     150.26     153.37     161.24     162.56     164.04
  Chain-type price index...................      95.49      92.70      93.02      90.97      90.61      93.03      94.05      94.38

Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment:
  Chain-type quantity index................     111.29     115.36     120.46     117.76     119.37     119.79     120.65     122.02
  Chain-type price index...................     110.65     113.27     115.19     113.27     114.27     115.06     115.47     115.95

  Federal:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     102.42     107.33     115.31     110.46     112.46     114.50     115.71     118.54
    Chain-type price index.................     108.23     110.09     113.13     110.18     112.42     113.07     113.44     113.62
  State and local:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     116.52     120.11     123.54     122.09     123.47     122.95     123.62     124.14
    Chain-type price index.................     111.98     115.01     116.33     114.97     115.29     116.17     116.60     117.24

Addenda:

  Final sales of domestic product:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     117.19     118.95     121.10     119.81     120.51     120.49     121.51     121.91
    Chain-type price index.................     107.02     109.55     110.80     109.91     110.28     110.62     110.91     111.40
    Implicit price deflator................     107.02     109.55     110.80     109.91     110.27     110.62     110.91     111.39
  Gross domestic purchases:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     121.00     121.50     125.04     122.06     123.74     124.53     125.72     126.15
    Chain-type price index.................     106.58     108.65     109.91     108.84     109.15     109.77     110.11     110.60
    Implicit price deflator................     106.58     108.65     109.91     108.83     109.15     109.77     110.11     110.61
  Final sales to domestic purchasers:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     120.56     122.52     125.38     123.50     124.42     124.82     125.84     126.44
    Chain-type price index.................     106.70     108.78     110.05     108.97     109.28     109.90     110.25     110.75
    Implicit price deflator................     106.70     108.78     110.05     108.97     109.28     109.90     110.25     110.75
  Gross national product:
    Chain-type quantity index..............     117.69     117.96      .....     118.54     119.62     119.73     121.03      .....
    Chain-type price index.................     106.86     109.39      .....     109.75     110.11     110.45     110.73      .....
    Implicit price deflator................     106.86     109.38      .....     109.74     110.11     110.45     110.73      .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.

                                                     Table 6.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Historical Perspective
                                                                 [Percent change from preceding year]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Gross domestic product (GDP)....     3.4     4.2     3.5     1.8     -.5     3.0     2.7     4.0     2.7     3.6     4.4     4.3     4.1     3.8      .3     2.4

Personal consumption expenditures......     3.3     4.0     2.7     1.8     -.2     2.9     3.4     3.8     3.0     3.2     3.6     4.8     4.9     4.4     2.5     3.1
  Durable goods........................     1.7     5.8     2.1     -.9    -6.6     5.3     8.2     7.6     4.6     5.6     6.6    10.5    11.8     8.2     6.0     7.4
  Nondurable goods.....................     2.4     3.2     2.7     1.4     -.4     1.9     2.9     3.8     3.0     2.9     2.9     4.1     4.7     3.9     2.0     3.1
  Services.............................     4.3     4.1     2.8     2.8     1.4     2.9     2.7     3.0     2.7     2.8     3.3     4.0     3.7     3.8     2.0     2.2

Gross private domestic investment......     2.5     2.7     3.7    -3.1    -8.6     8.5     8.7    13.2     3.0     9.0    12.1    11.8     6.6     6.2   -10.7      .5
  Fixed investment.....................      .0     3.6     2.7    -1.8    -6.9     6.5     8.1     9.1     6.0     9.3     9.6    11.4     7.8     6.1    -3.8    -3.2
    Nonresidential.....................     -.1     5.4     5.5      .7    -4.9     3.4     8.4     8.9     9.8    10.0    12.2    12.5     8.1     7.8    -5.2    -5.8
      Structures.......................    -3.6     1.3     2.5     1.5   -11.0    -6.1      .8      .8     4.8     7.1     9.1     6.8    -1.3     6.5    -1.7   -16.4
      Equipment and software...........     1.7     7.5     7.0      .4    -2.0     7.4    11.3    11.9    11.5    11.0    13.3    14.6    11.5     8.2    -6.4    -1.8
    Residential........................      .2     -.5    -4.1    -8.6   -12.8    16.3     7.3     9.7    -3.6     7.4     2.0     8.0     6.7     1.1      .3     3.8
  Change in private inventories........   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....

Net exports of goods and services......   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....
  Exports..............................    11.2    16.1    11.8     8.7     6.5     6.2     3.3     8.9    10.3     8.2    12.3     2.1     3.4     9.7    -5.4    -1.3
    Goods..............................    11.1    18.8    12.6     8.2     7.1     6.8     3.0     9.7    11.9     8.7    14.5     2.1     3.8    11.3    -5.9    -3.3
    Services...........................    11.6     9.3     9.6    10.0     5.1     4.6     4.1     7.2     6.4     6.8     7.0     2.3     2.5     6.0    -4.0     3.4
  Imports..............................     6.1     3.8     3.9     3.8     -.5     6.6     9.1    12.0     8.2     8.6    13.7    11.8    10.9    13.2    -2.9     3.5
    Goods..............................     4.6     4.1     4.2     3.0     -.1     9.3    10.1    13.3     9.0     9.4    14.2    11.7    12.2    13.5    -3.3     3.7
    Services...........................    12.6     2.7     2.8     7.6    -2.3    -4.0     4.7     5.8     4.1     4.8    10.9    11.9     4.2    11.6     -.5     1.9

Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment..................     3.0     1.2     2.8     3.3     1.2      .5     -.8      .1      .5     1.1     2.4     1.9     3.9     2.7     3.7     4.4
  Federal..............................     3.7    -1.8     1.3     2.0     -.3    -1.6    -3.9    -3.6    -2.7     -.9     -.4     -.8     2.3     1.3     4.8     7.4
    National defense...................     4.7     -.8     -.8      .0    -1.1    -4.9    -5.4    -4.8    -3.7    -1.3    -2.6    -1.8     2.1     -.1     5.0     9.3
    Nondefense.........................      .5    -5.2     8.4     8.3     1.8     7.1     -.3    -1.0     -.5      .0     4.2     1.1     2.7     3.6     4.5     4.2
  State and local......................     2.3     3.7     3.9     4.2     2.3     2.0     1.4     2.6     2.5     2.3     4.0     3.4     4.7     3.5     3.1     2.9

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product......     3.0     4.3     3.3     2.0     -.2     2.8     2.6     3.4     3.1     3.6     4.0     4.2     4.3     3.7     1.5     1.8
  Gross domestic purchases.............     3.1     3.2     2.9     1.4    -1.1     3.1     3.3     4.4     2.5     3.7     4.7     5.4     5.0     4.4      .4     2.9
  Final sales to domestic purchasers...     2.7     3.4     2.7     1.6     -.9     2.8     3.2     3.8     3.0     3.7     4.3     5.3     5.2     4.3     1.6     2.3
  Gross national product...............     3.3     4.2     3.5     1.9     -.5     3.0     2.6     3.9     2.7     3.5     4.3     4.2     4.4     3.7      .2   .....
  Real disposable personal income......     2.1     4.4     2.6     2.2      .4     3.1     1.4     2.6     2.6     2.5     3.1     5.4     2.6     4.8     1.8     4.5
  Gross domestic purchases price
   index...............................     3.3     3.4     3.8     4.1     3.4     2.5     2.3     2.0     2.2     1.8     1.6      .8     1.5     2.5     1.9     1.2
  GDP price index......................     3.0     3.4     3.8     3.9     3.6     2.4     2.4     2.1     2.2     1.9     1.9     1.2     1.4     2.1     2.4     1.1
  Personal consumption expenditures
   price index.........................     3.8     3.9     4.4     4.6     3.8     3.1     2.4     2.0     2.3     2.1     1.9     1.1     1.6     2.5     2.0     1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                            Table 7.--Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           I 99   II 99  III 99   IV 99    I 00   II 00  III 00   IV 00    I 01   II 01  III 01   IV 01    I 02   II 02  III 02   IV 02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Gross domestic product (GDP)....     4.0     3.9     4.2     4.3     4.2     4.9     3.7     2.3     1.5     -.1     -.4      .1     1.4     2.2     3.3     2.8

Personal consumption expenditures......     4.9     4.8     5.0     5.0     5.1     4.5     4.3     3.5     2.8     2.4     1.8     2.8     3.0     3.1     3.8     2.5
  Durable goods........................    12.3    11.7    13.3    10.0    13.1     8.4     7.8     3.8     2.4     4.7     3.8    13.2     8.4     7.5    11.9     2.1
  Nondurable goods.....................     4.8     4.5     4.4     4.9     4.2     4.3     4.1     3.0     3.0     1.7     1.5     1.7     3.1     3.1     3.1     3.1
  Services.............................     3.6     3.6     3.7     4.0     4.0     3.8     3.6     3.8     2.8     2.3     1.6     1.3     1.8     2.1     2.5     2.3

Gross private domestic investment......     6.3     6.8     6.6     6.6     5.3    11.0     6.4     2.2    -3.8   -11.9   -11.7   -15.1    -6.5      .0     2.3     7.0
  Fixed investment.....................     9.0     7.9     8.4     5.9     7.3     7.1     5.7     4.3      .5    -4.0    -5.1    -6.7    -6.3    -3.7    -2.7      .3
    Nonresidential.....................     8.9     7.8     9.4     6.6     8.3     8.9     7.8     6.2     1.1    -5.1    -7.4    -9.3    -9.4    -6.3    -5.1    -1.9
      Structures.......................     2.6    -2.2    -3.1    -2.5     1.8     5.2    10.0     9.3     5.0      .8    -1.4   -10.6   -13.3   -15.6   -21.1   -15.7
      Equipment and software...........    11.1    11.3    13.8     9.7    10.5    10.1     7.2     5.2     -.2    -7.1    -9.5    -8.8    -8.0    -2.9     1.1     3.0
    Residential........................     9.3     8.2     5.6     4.0     4.1     2.1     -.6    -1.2    -1.2     -.6     2.0     1.0     2.4     3.2     3.4     6.1
  Change in private inventories........   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....

Net exports of goods and services......   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....   .....
  Exports..............................      .4     2.5     5.7     4.9     8.8    11.4    11.6     7.3     3.7    -3.1   -10.1   -11.4    -9.3    -3.0     2.8     5.0
    Goods..............................     -.2     3.2     6.4     5.6     9.9    12.8    14.3     8.3     4.9    -3.3   -12.1   -12.3   -11.7    -4.3     1.8     2.1
    Services...........................     1.9      .8     4.2     3.2     6.1     8.1     5.3     4.8      .7    -2.6    -4.7    -9.2    -3.1      .0     5.3    12.0
  Imports..............................     9.0    10.0    12.6    11.9    13.5    14.3    14.1    11.1     5.2    -1.0    -7.1    -8.0    -4.1     2.6     6.7     9.2
    Goods..............................    10.1    11.3    14.3    13.0    13.9    14.7    14.3    11.1     5.1    -2.1    -7.5    -7.9    -4.8     3.8     7.3     8.9
    Services...........................     3.4     3.5     4.1     5.9    10.9    11.6    13.0    10.9     5.9     5.7    -4.5    -8.6    -1.4    -3.9     3.4    10.4

Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment..................     4.1     3.0     3.8     4.5     3.5     3.9     2.3     1.3     3.0     3.3     3.2     5.1     5.0     4.0     5.0     3.6
  Federal..............................     2.4      .1     2.9     4.0     1.2     4.4      .7    -1.2     4.7     2.4     4.6     7.5     6.9     7.3     8.1     7.3
    National defense...................     2.8     -.3     1.7     4.4      .0     3.7    -1.3    -2.5     5.2     2.2     5.1     7.4     8.2     9.5    10.1     9.4
    Nondefense.........................     1.6      .8     5.2     3.4     3.4     5.7     4.2     1.1     3.9     2.6     3.9     7.6     4.7     3.5     4.7     3.8
  State and local......................     5.0     4.5     4.3     4.8     4.6     3.6     3.2     2.6     2.2     3.7     2.5     3.9     4.1     2.3     3.4     1.7

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product......     4.4     4.1     4.5     4.2     4.5     4.2     3.6     2.6     2.2     1.4      .9     1.6     1.5     1.6     2.5     1.8
  Gross domestic purchases.............     5.0     4.8     5.1     5.2     4.9     5.5     4.3     2.9     1.7      .1     -.3      .1     1.8     2.8     3.7     3.4
  Final sales to domestic purchasers...     5.5     5.0     5.4     5.1     5.2     4.8     4.2     3.3     2.5     1.5      .9     1.6     1.8     2.2     3.0     2.4
  Gross national product...............     4.2     4.2     4.6     4.7     4.2     4.9     3.7     2.2     1.3     -.1     -.4      .1     1.4     1.7     3.0   .....
  Real disposable personal income......     3.7     2.4     1.9     2.4     3.8     4.9     5.6     4.8     2.7     1.3     2.8      .3     3.8     5.0     3.2     5.9
  Gross domestic purchases price
   index...............................     1.1     1.4     1.6     1.9     2.5     2.5     2.6     2.5     2.4     2.3     1.7     1.3      .8      .9     1.3     1.6
  GDP price index......................     1.3     1.5     1.4     1.6     1.9     2.1     2.2     2.3     2.4     2.5     2.6     2.0     1.4     1.1      .8     1.3
  Personal consumption expenditures
   price index.........................     1.2     1.6     1.8     2.0     2.6     2.6     2.5     2.5     2.5     2.4     1.8     1.5      .9     1.1     1.6     1.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     Table 8.--Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income
                                                       [Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                         Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
                                                                                ---------------------------------------------------
                                                  2000       2001       2002      IV 01       I 02      II 02     III 02      IV 02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross domestic product.....................    9,824.6   10,082.2   10,442.1   10,152.9   10,313.1   10,376.9   10,506.2   10,572.3

Plus: Income receipts from
 the rest of the world.....................      383.4      316.9      .....      269.0      264.7      276.0      287.3      .....
Less: Income payments to
 the rest of the world.....................      360.0      295.0      .....      233.7      262.8      296.1      298.2      .....

Equals: Gross national product.............    9,848.0   10,104.1      .....   10,188.1   10,314.9   10,356.8   10,495.3      .....

Less: Consumption of fixed capital.........    1,228.9    1,329.3    1,393.2    1,338.6    1,363.5    1,389.8    1,405.3    1,414.4
Less: Indirect business tax and
 nontax liability..........................      753.6      774.8      800.1      779.9      786.2      795.1      806.9      812.1
Less: Business transfer payments...........       43.7       42.5       44.2       42.8       43.8       43.9       44.4       44.5
Less: Statistical discrepancy..............     -128.5     -117.3      .....     -132.6     -110.0     -165.0     -120.3      .....
Plus: Subsidies less current
 surplus of government enterprises.........       34.1       47.3       31.8       37.5       37.0       35.1       29.1       25.9

Equals: National income....................    7,984.4    8,122.0      .....    8,196.8    8,268.5    8,328.0    8,388.1      .....

  Compensation of employees................    5,723.4    5,874.9    5,998.8    5,860.9    5,908.4    5,963.9    6,026.6    6,096.4
    Wage and salary accruals...............    4,836.3    4,950.6    5,023.9    4,931.4    4,957.8    4,997.3    5,043.6    5,096.7
    Supplements to wages and salaries......      887.1      924.3      975.0      929.4      950.7      966.6      982.9      999.7
  Proprietors' income with inventory
   valuation and capital consumption
   adjustments.............................      714.8      727.9      756.9      731.3      748.4      747.5      758.7      772.9
  Rental income of persons with
   capital consumption adjustment..........      146.6      137.9      143.9      139.3      141.3      153.5      144.1      136.7
  Corporate profits with inventory
   valuation and capital consumption
   adjustments.............................      788.1      731.6      .....      811.4      797.6      785.0      771.0      .....
  Net interest.............................      611.5      649.8      682.4      653.9      672.8      678.1      687.6      691.3

Addendum:
  Gross domestic income....................    9,953.1   10,199.4      .....   10,285.5   10,423.1   10,541.8   10,626.5      .....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                           Table 9.--Personal Income and Its Disposition
                                                       [Billions of dollars]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                         Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
                                                                                ---------------------------------------------------
                                                  2000       2001       2002      IV 01       I 02      II 02     III 02      IV 02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personal income\1\.........................    8,406.6    8,685.3    8,948.1    8,700.9    8,803.4    8,914.0    8,993.3    9,081.6

  Wage and salary disbursements............    4,836.3    4,950.6    5,023.9    4,931.4    4,957.8    4,997.3    5,043.6    5,096.7
  Other labor income.......................      544.2      570.4      610.8      576.3      590.8      604.1      617.5      630.9
  Proprietors' income with
   inventory valuation and capital
   consumption adjustments.................      714.8      727.9      756.9      731.3      748.4      747.5      758.7      772.9
    Farm...................................       22.6       19.0       12.7       19.2       21.7        7.5       10.7       10.9
    Nonfarm................................      692.2      708.8      744.2      712.1      726.7      740.0      748.0      761.9
  Rental income of persons with
   capital consumption adjustment..........      146.6      137.9      143.9      139.3      141.3      153.5      144.1      136.7
  Personal dividend income.................      375.7      409.2      433.8      417.3      423.7      430.3      437.3      443.8
  Personal interest income.................    1,077.0    1,091.3    1,077.3    1,072.9    1,069.9    1,082.3    1,080.7    1,076.1
  Transfer payments to persons.............    1,070.3    1,170.4    1,287.1    1,205.0    1,252.0    1,282.6    1,298.4    1,315.4

  Less: Personal contributions for
   social insurance........................      358.4      372.3      385.5      372.7      380.5      383.6      387.0      391.0

Less: Personal tax and nontax payments.....    1,286.4    1,292.1    1,118.1    1,309.7    1,136.8    1,121.8    1,107.3    1,106.6

Equals: Disposable personal income.........    7,120.2    7,393.2    7,830.0    7,391.2    7,666.7    7,792.2    7,886.0    7,975.0

Less: Personal outlays.....................    6,918.6    7,223.5    7,521.7    7,329.6    7,396.3    7,477.9    7,583.0    7,629.6

Equals: Personal saving....................      201.5      169.7      308.2       61.5      270.4      314.3      303.0      345.3

Addenda:
  Disposable personal income,
   billions of chained (1996) dollars\2\...    6,630.3    6,748.0    7,049.2    6,729.1    6,961.0    7,027.2    7,081.6    7,127.2
  Personal saving as a percentage of
   disposable personal income..............        2.8        2.3        3.9         .8        3.5        4.0        3.8        4.3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1. Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate
profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
net interest, contributions for social insurance, and wage accruals
less disbursements, plus personal interest income, personal dividend
income, government transfer payments to persons, and business
transfer payments to persons.
  2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price
deflator for personal consumption expenditures.

                      Appendix Table A.--Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period
                                                         [Percent; quarters seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                       2000   2001   2002   I 99  II 99 III 99  IV 99   I 00  II 00 III 00  IV 00   I 01  II 01 III 01  IV 01   I 02  II 02 III 02  IV 02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP and related aggregates:
  GDP...............................    3.8     .3    2.4    3.0    2.0    5.2    7.1    2.6    4.8     .6    1.1    -.6   -1.6    -.3    2.7    5.0    1.3    4.0     .7

  Goods.............................    4.7   -2.3    3.3    1.4    1.5    8.2   12.0    1.4    6.9    -.5   -2.7   -4.4   -5.7   -1.5    4.3    8.3     .4    9.0   -2.5
  Services..........................    3.3    2.1    2.7    3.7    2.9    4.3    3.9    2.0    5.0    1.6    3.7     .9    1.2    1.8    3.2    2.8    3.5    2.5    2.7
  Structures........................    2.7    -.1   -2.8    5.7   -1.5   -1.9    6.2   10.7   -3.6   -1.2    1.7    6.1   -1.3   -7.1   -5.6    6.1   -8.4   -5.5    1.9

  Motor vehicle output..............   -2.7   -6.1   12.8  -11.1   -2.0   21.0    2.0   -1.6   -7.9  -16.4  -18.1  -19.1   19.4   10.7   16.3    9.9    8.1   37.1  -13.3
  GDP less motor vehicle output.....    4.0     .5    2.1    3.6    2.1    4.6    7.3    2.7    5.4    1.2    1.8     .0   -2.2    -.6    2.3    4.9    1.0    3.0    1.3

  Final sales of computers\1\.......   29.5    9.1   13.0   36.4   61.8   35.1   -3.9   56.9   45.2    9.6   10.2   30.0  -19.1   -5.3   28.9   -7.8   13.1   78.5   26.6
  GDP less final sales of computers.    3.5     .2    2.3    2.8    1.5    4.9    7.2    2.2    4.5     .5    1.0    -.8   -1.4    -.2    2.6    5.1    1.2    3.6     .6

  Farm product\2\...................   11.5   -5.1     .3    7.3   25.7   -7.3    8.7   35.1    4.7   15.3  -19.1  -10.6  -17.5   -4.3   74.0  -14.2  -26.7    7.9    7.8

  Nonfarm business less housing
   product\3\.......................    4.1    -.1    2.7    3.2    1.8    6.0    8.5    2.1    5.6     .3    1.2    -.9   -2.8    -.8    3.0    6.3     .9    5.4    1.0

Price indexes:
  GDP...............................    2.1    2.4    1.1    1.8    1.5    1.2    1.7    3.1    2.3    1.6    2.1    3.7    2.5    2.2    -.5    1.3    1.2    1.0    1.8
  GDP less food and energy..........    2.0    2.0    1.4    1.7    1.6    1.3    1.8    2.7    2.1    1.6    1.9    2.8    1.6    2.8     .0    1.6    1.5    1.1    1.6
  GDP less final sales of computers.    2.3    2.6    1.3    2.2    1.8    1.5    1.9    3.3    2.5    1.8    2.2    4.1    2.7    2.4    -.4    1.5    1.4    1.2    1.9

  Gross domestic purchases..........    2.5    1.9    1.2    1.4    2.1    1.9    2.2    3.7    2.2    2.2    2.1    3.3    1.7    -.2     .4    1.2    2.3    1.2    1.8
  Gross domestic purchases less
   food and energy..................    1.9    1.8    1.4    1.5    1.4    1.2    1.7    2.7    1.9    1.5    1.7    2.9    1.3     .6    2.0    1.4    1.5    1.2    1.4
  Gross domestic purchases less
   final sales of computers.........    2.8    2.2    1.4    1.8    2.4    2.2    2.4    3.9    2.4    2.4    2.3    3.8    2.0     .1     .7    1.4    2.4    1.4    2.0

  Personal consumption expenditures.    2.5    2.0    1.4    1.2    2.3    2.2    2.4    3.4    2.3    2.1    2.2    3.3    1.8    -.1     .8    1.1    2.7    1.7    1.9
  Personal consumption expenditures
   less food and energy.............    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.3    1.4    1.5    1.7    2.2    1.8    1.3    1.8    2.8    1.2     .7    2.7    1.4    1.9    1.8    1.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1. For some components of final sales of computers, includes
computer parts.
  2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased.
  3. Consists of GDP less gross product of farm, of housing,
of households and institutions, and of general government.
  See "Explanatory Note" at the end of the tables.


              Explanatory Note:  Measures of Output and Prices

     This note describes the calculation of chain-type quantity and price indexes used in the NIPA's.

     Changes in current-dollar GDP measure changes in the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the
economy in a particular period.  These changes can be decomposed into quantity and price components.  Quantities, or
"real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year--at present, the year 1996--equal to
100. 

     The annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two
adjacent years.  (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights
from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes
are calculated.)  For example, the 2000-01 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2000 and 2001 as weights,
and the 2000-01 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2000 and 2001 as weights.  These annual
changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes.  The Fisher formula
produces percent changes in quantities and prices that are not affected by the choice of reference years.  In addition,
because the changes in quantities and prices calculated in this way are symmetric, in general, the product of a quantity
index and the corresponding price index equals the current-dollar index.  (BEA also publishes a measure of the price level
known as the "implicit price deflator (IPD)," which is calculated as the ratio of current-dollar value to the corresponding
chained-dollar value, multiplied by 100.  The values of the IPD are very close to the values of the corresponding
"chain-type" price index for all periods.)

     Chain-type quantity and price indexes for GDP and its major components are presented in this release as index
numbers in table 5 and in the form of percentage changes from the preceding period in tables 1, 4, 6 and from the quarter
one year ago in table 7. Contributions by major components to changes in real GDP are presented in table 2.  BEA also
prepares measures of real GDP and its components in a dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (1996) dollar
estimates."  For GDP and most other series, these estimates, which are presented in table 3, are computed by multiplying
the 1996 current-dollar value by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100.  For example, if a
current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 1996 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 1997,
then the chained (1996) dollar value of this component in 1997 would be $110 ($100 x 1.10).  

     For analyses of changes over time in an aggregate or in a component, the percentage changes calculated from the
chained-dollar estimates and from the chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to
rounding.  However, because the relative prices used as weights for any period other than the reference year differ from
those used for the reference year, the chained-dollar values for the detailed GDP components will not necessarily sum to
the chained-dollar estimate of GDP or to any intermediate aggregate.  A measure of the extent of such differences is
provided by a "residual" line, which indicates the difference between GDP (or another major aggregate) and the sum of
the most detailed components in the table.  For periods close to the reference year, when there usually has not been much
change in the relative prices that are used as weights for the chain-type index, the residuals tend to be small, and the
chained (1996) dollar estimates can be used to approximate the contributions to growth and to aggregate the detailed
estimates.  As one moves further from the reference year, the residual tends to become larger, and the chained-dollar
estimates become less useful for analyses of contributions to growth.  Thus, the contributions to percent change shown in
table 2 provide a better measure of the composition of GDP growth.  In particular, for components for which relative
prices are changing rapidly, calculation of contributions using chained-dollar estimates may be misleading even just a few
years from the reference year.
     
References: "A Preview of the 1999 Comprehensive Revision of the NIPA's: Statistical Changes," October 1999 Survey,
pp. 6-17; "A Guide to the NIPA's," March 1998 Survey, pp. 36-40; "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of
Long-Term Economic Growth," May 1997 Survey, pp. 58-68.