This technical note provides background information about the source data and
estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release.
The complete set of estimates for the third quarter is available on BEA's Web site at
www.bea.gov; a brief summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few
weeks, the Survey of Current Business, BEA’s online monthly journal, will publish a
more detailed analysis of the estimates ("GDP and the Economy").

GDP

Real GDP increased 1.5 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015, following an
increase of 3.9 percent in the second quarter. The deceleration in real GDP in the third
quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations
in exports, in nonresidential fixed investment, in consumer spending, in state and local
government spending, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a
deceleration in imports.

The downturn in inventory investment was in nonfarm industries and included a
downturn in manufacturing, a larger decrease in wholesale, and a downturn in retail.
The deceleration in exports was in goods exports, mainly capital goods. Exports of
services accelerated.

Within nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in structures, largely in commercial
and health care structures, and a slowdown in intellectual property products, most
notably in business R&D and in software, were partly offset by an acceleration in
equipment investment, specifically in information processing equipment and in
transportation equipment.

The deceleration in imports reflected a slowdown in goods imports, most notably
automotive vehicles, engines, and parts. Imports of services accelerated.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

The advance GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2015 is based on source data that
are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months of source data were available for
consumer spending on goods; shipments of capital equipment; motor vehicle sales
and inventories; durable goods manufacturing inventories; exports and imports of
goods; federal government outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices.
BEA’s key assumptions for the third month for other major series are shown in table A.
Among those assumptions are the following:

*	a decrease in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
*	a decrease in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail inventories,
*	a decrease in nonresidential construction,
*	and an increase in residential construction.


Prices

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.2 percent
in the third quarter after increasing 2.2 percent in the second. Excluding food and
energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.3 percent after increasing 1.9 percent.
Energy prices turned down, while food prices turned up.


Disposable Personal Income

Real disposable personal income increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter, following
an increase of 1.2 percent in the second. The personal saving rate was 4.7 percent in
the third quarter, compared with 4.6 percent in second.



Nicole Mayerhauser
Chief, National Income and Wealth Division
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9715




                              

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