EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Friday, January 29, 2016
BEA 16—04


* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.


Lisa Mataloni: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov
Jeannine Aversa: (202) 606-2649 (News Media)  
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 (Advance Estimate)
      Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nationís
economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price
changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the
"advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP
increased 2.0 percent.

      The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4
and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based
on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2016.

      The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government
spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports,
and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
increased.

      The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and
downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in state and local government spending
that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports,
and an acceleration in federal government spending.

      Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the
third.

_____
FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are
in chained (2009) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site.
______

      The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.9 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the goods and services produced by the nationís
economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production -- increased 1.5 percent, or
$68.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,128.2 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar
GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $146.5 billion.


Disposition of personal income

      Current-dollar personal income increased $137.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of $190.8 billion in the third. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected a
downturn in personal interest income and decelerations in wages and salaries and in farm proprietorsí
income.

      Personal current taxes increased $25.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase
of $22.3 billion in the third.

      Disposable personal income increased $111.3 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $168.5 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal
income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

      Personal outlays increased $72.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$131.7 billion in the third.

      Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $739.3 billion in the
fourth quarter, compared with $700.6 billion in the third.

      The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income --
was 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the third. For a comparison of
personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal
Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.


2015 GDP

      Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual
level), the same rate as in 2014.

      The increase in real GDP in 2015 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private
inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

      Comparing real GDP growth in 2015 with growth in 2014, real GDP increased 2.4 percent in
both years, though there were offsetting movements in the components. Decelerations in nonresidential
fixed investment and in exports and an acceleration in imports were offset by accelerations in PCE and
in residential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in
private inventory investment and in state and local government spending.

      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in 2015, compared with an
increase of 1.5 percent in 2014.

      Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $589.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,937.8
billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014.

      During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015),
real GDP increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014.  The price index
for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 1.2
percent during 2014.

______
BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."  For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
______

      BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.


                                      *          *          *


                     Next release -- February 26, 2016 at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
            Gross Domestic Product:  Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 (Second Estimate)


                                      *          *          *


			                     Release dates in 2016

Gross Domestic Product

                 2015: IV and 2015 annual      2016: I            2016: II           2016: III

Advance....            January 29             April 28             July 29          October 28
Second.....           February 26               May 27           August 26         November 29
Third......              March 25              June 28        September 29         December 22


Corporate Profits

Preliminary...            ...                   May 27           August 26         November 29
Revised.......           March 25              June 28        September 29         December 22




                                        Comparisons of Revisions to GDP


	Current quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first
month following the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
"second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.  "Latest"
quarterly estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions, which are typically released in late July.

	Annual revisions generally cover at least the 3 most recent calendar years (and the associated quarters) and
incorporate newly available major annual source data.  Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at
about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and
methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy.

	The table below presents the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real and current-dollar
GDP for the different estimate vintages.  From the advance estimate to the second estimate (1 month later), the
average revision to real GDP growth without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance
estimate to the third estimate (2 months later), it is 0.6 percentage point.  From the advance estimate to the latest
estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.2 percentage points.  Larger average revisions for the
latest estimates reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements to the accounts, such as
the incorporation of BEA's latest benchmark input-output accounts.  The current quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change in real GDP 96 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating about 75 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or
below trend growth about 83 percent of the time.


                      Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
                                                  [Annual rates]

       Vintages                                   Average         Average without     Standard deviation of
       compared                                                    regard to sign      revisions without
                                                                                         regard to sign

________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.1                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................               0.1                 0.6                  0.5
Second to third......................               0.0                 0.2                  0.3

Advance to latest....................              -0.1                 1.2                  1.0


____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.1                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................               0.2                 0.7                  0.5
Second to third......................               0.1                 0.3                  0.3
Advance to latest....................               0.1                 1.3                  1.0

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 NOTE.  These comparisons are based on the period from 1993 through 2014.