Photo of Jon D. Samuels.

Chief National Accounts Research Group

Jon D. Samuels

Education

Ph.D.
Johns Hopkins University
Economics
2012
M.A.
Johns Hopkins University
Economics
2009
B.A.
University of Chicago
Economics
1996
Associate
Institute of Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University
2012
2022
Visiting Student
Institute of Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University
2007
2012
Researcher
Institute of Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University
2005
2006
Research Analyst
Program on Technology and Economic Policy, JFK School of Government
2000
2005
Junior Economist
Primark Decision Economics
1997
2000
The Contribution of Reallocation to U.S. GDP Growth: Measurement Using Tiered Aggregation tanya.shen Wed, 10/20/2021 - 07:00
Working Paper

Resources moving from less productive to more productive sectors can increase aggregate output without any underlying change in production technology, yet the impact of these reallocations is challenging to measure because it involves measuring unobserved counterfactual production where resources have not moved. We construct measures of counterfactual production by implementing an Industry-Level Production Account with a tiers structure. Aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) and total factor productivity growth constructed bottom-up from the micro- (industry) level captures the true data-generating process for the sources of growth. The counterfactual accounts employ restrictions that impose a constraint that reallocating outputs and inputs have no impact on aggregate production, so that the difference between the two measures captures the economic impact of reallocations. We find that reallocations contributed 0.30 percent per year on average out of total GDP growth of 2.39 percent per year from 1987–2018. Almost all of this can be accounted for as reallocations of value added within manufacturing (for example, to the computer producing sector from other manufacturing sectors) and across sectors to the information and trade sectors.

 
Additional Information

 

 

Jon D. Samuels and Mun S. Ho

Working Paper ID
WP2021-7
E01
American Economics Association
Department of Commerce Gold Medal
2018
Department of Commerce Bronze Medal
2015
Department of Commerce Silver Medal
2014
Department of Commerce Bronze Medal
2013
Robert M. Burger Fellowship
Semiconductor Research Corporation
Johns Hopkins University Fellowship
Department of Economics