Methods

This paper explores potential ways to develop experimental estimates of the value of U.S. imports of illegal drugs. It builds on the initial exploration of this topic by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Soloveichik (2019), which presents experimental estimates of U.S. domestic consumption of illegal drugs and of import of illegal drugs into the United States. In this paper, I extend Soloveichik’s research by exploring the feasibility of developing estimates of imports of methamphetamines and marijuana using seizure data, and I evaluate the extent to which source data allow us to estimate heroin and cocaine imports by geography. International guidelines for national economic accounts (the System of National Accounts 2008, or SNA) and international economic accounts (the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition) explicitly recommend that some illegal market activity should be included in measured output. Soloveichik suggests that illegal drugs comprise the largest share of imports of this activity for the United States and would have added $111 billion to U.S. GDP in 2017.

This paper reviews the efforts of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to measure international services categorized by mode of supply. BEA has adopted a survey form that uses an innovative approach to collect information on mode of supply by simply having companies report the percentage of its services supplied through one mode as opposed to all modes, with the idea that the other modes can be estimated as a residual or using other data sources. Of the few previous efforts by countries to measure trade by mode of supply, most are based on assumptions about industry practices or on surveys that simply asked for the predominant mode of supply rather than a more precise percentage supplied by mode. BEA also uses a pioneering method to measure services supplied through affiliates across service types by mapping its comprehensive industry-based foreign affiliate statistics to its product-based trade statistics. The estimates also include a breakdown of the mode where consumers obtain the service outside their home territory, such as services received when traveling abroad, that more closely corresponds with guidelines set out in the General Agreement on Trade in Services than most previous efforts.