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Former BEA Researcher
Brian Sliker
The Increasing Pace of Weather-Related Cost Shocks: Should Net Domestic Product be Affected by Climate Disasters? (PDF)
Brian Sliker and Leonard Nakamura
Implications of Geometric Cohort Depreciation for Service-Life Distributions (PDF)
Brian Sliker
Structural Estimates of Depreciation from Wholesale Auctions of Used Ford Windstar Vans (PDF)
Brian Sliker
This paper uses GDP-by-state and industry data, and looks at the decline in volatility of the U.S. economy that occurred in about 1984. It finds that this decline primarily results from declines in covariances between industries, or between states, rather than declines in variances of the individual industries or states. Similarly, it finds that changing shares of more- and less-volatile industries account for little of the overall decline in volatility. It suggests that some of the general explanations suggested by some analysts—such as better inventory management or improved labor markets—are best suited for specific industries or industry groups, rather than the overall economy. General explanations that would tend to work in many industries—such as better business planning due to lower price volatility or improved information technology—might account for much of the decline in overall volatility. Nevertheless, many industries experienced increased volatility. The paper also takes a brief look at the earlier, very large decline in volatility that occurred after the era of the great depression and World War II, and suggests that institutional factors have historically been important in determining volatility.
Bruce T. Grimm and Brian Sliker
2007 R&D Satellite Account Methodologies: R&D Capital Stocks and Net Rates of Return (PDF)
Brian Sliker