Methods - Data Sources

This paper explores potential ways to develop experimental estimates of the value of U.S. imports of illegal drugs. It builds on the initial exploration of this topic by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Soloveichik (2019), which presents experimental estimates of U.S. domestic consumption of illegal drugs and of import of illegal drugs into the United States. In this paper, I extend Soloveichik’s research by exploring the feasibility of developing estimates of imports of methamphetamines and marijuana using seizure data, and I evaluate the extent to which source data allow us to estimate heroin and cocaine imports by geography. International guidelines for national economic accounts (the System of National Accounts 2008, or SNA) and international economic accounts (the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition) explicitly recommend that some illegal market activity should be included in measured output. Soloveichik suggests that illegal drugs comprise the largest share of imports of this activity for the United States and would have added $111 billion to U.S. GDP in 2017.

This paper provides an overview of the source data and the estimating methods used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to prepare the quarterly estimates of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). When BEA prepares its first estimates of quarterly GDP, a wide mix of source data are used. In some cases, these data are not as complete or as detailed as desired. Over time, more complete and detailed data are received that are more consistent with the concepts and framework of the national accounts. Consequently, BEA has a regular schedule for revising its estimates to reflect the most accurate source data and to incorporate the most appropriate estimating methods. This paper describes the various source data and estimating methods used to prepare the current- and constant-price estimates of quarterly GDP; it describes how these data and methods change over the course of a GDP revision cycle.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), under contract with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Office of Research, undertook an update of BEA’s state-level wage reconciliation for 2000 between BEA wages and salaries and IRS wages and salaries in Adjusted Gross Income. The initial reconciliation for the year 2000 was documented in the BEA Working Paper, The Feasibility of Producing Personal Income to Adjusted Gross Income (PI-AGI) Reconciliations by State. This study updates state estimates of the reconciliation of BEA and IRS wages and salaries for 2001 and 2002.

Results (XLS)